Forecasting Tuesday’s Tony nominations

For one thing, more productions than usual are competing, with 41 openings, compared with the usual number in the mid-30s.
More significantly, it was a mediocre year for shows, especially musicals, with nothing coming remotely close to the impact of last year's Tony winner, "The Book of Mormon."

For the acting competitions, the situation is reversed, with a bountiful number of fine performances.That makes it equally hard, though, to select nominees.
But enough weaseling.Here are my guesses about who and what will be chosen in the major categories:
NEW MUSICAL — In a year when the original music in a play, "One Man, Two Guvnors," was better than the scores of most musicals, this is a matter of picking through an underwhelming lot.
"Once" and "Newsies" are good bets for nominations.After that, maybe "Nice Work If You Can Get It," and, possibly, "Leap of Faith." I wouldn't be shocked if the reviled "Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark" manages to sneak in.
NEW PLAY — There were lots of openings, 16, but a tidy quartet can be assembled from "Other Desert Cities," "Clybourne Park," "Peter and the Starcatcher" – all of which originated off-Broadway – and the British import "One Man, Two Guvnors." Also in contention are "Venus In Fur," "The Lyons" and "Seminar."